EIA is forecasting 2019 to be the first year wind overtakes hydropower as the leading source of renewable electricity generation.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its first Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of 2018, with forecasts through 2019. The full STEO can be downloaded here.
Non-hydropower renewables provided almost 10% of electricity generation in 2017, and its 2018 share is expected be similar before increasing to almost 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was more than 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be slightly lower than 7% in both 2018 and 2019.
According to the report: “EIA is forecasting 2019 to be the first year wind overtakes hydropower as the leading source of renewable electricity generation, due to a combination of hydro’s cyclical nature and the continued growth in wind capacity.”
EIA is also forecasting reduced U.S. coal production in 2018, retreating by 2% following a 6% increase in 2017. The share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas, however, is expected to rise from 32% in 2017 to 33% in 2018 and to 34% in 2019, as a result of low natural gas prices.
After declining by 1.0% in 2017, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are also forecast to increase by 1.7% in 2018 and by 0.2% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, and energy prices.
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